"New infrastructure" is on fire! From the key deployment of the upper level policy, to the hot pursuit of capital market funds, to the keen attention of the folk alley, "new infrastructure" is undoubtedly one of the most popular concepts in recent years.
01. What is "new infrastructure"?
"New infrastructure" is not a new concept. Compared with the "traditional infrastructure" represented by "tiegongji" and real estate, "new infrastructure" has been given a new scientific and technological connotation. According to the definition of CCTV's Chinese international channel, "new infrastructure" refers to the infrastructure construction at the technology end, mainly including 5g Infrastructure, UHV, intercity high-speed railway and intercity rail transit, new energy vehicle charging pile, big data center, artificial intelligence, industrial Internet and other seven fields, involving communication, power, transportation, digital and other key industries of social livelihood.
02. How does "new infrastructure" become a hot keyword?
The central economic working conference at the end of 2018 first proposed "new infrastructure construction" (referred to as "new infrastructure"). The meeting stressed that we should play a key role in investment, increase technological transformation and equipment upgrading in the manufacturing industry, and speed up 5g The pace of commercial use should be enhanced, such as the construction of new infrastructure such as artificial intelligence, industrial Internet, Internet of things, etc., the investment in inter city transportation, logistics, municipal infrastructure, etc., the construction of rural infrastructure and public service facilities should be supplemented, and the construction of natural disaster prevention and control capacity should be strengthened.
Subsequently, China's official deployment of "new infrastructure" gradually deepened, especially into 2020.
On January 3, the first executive meeting of the State Council in 2020 proposed to introduce new infrastructure investment support policies such as information networks. Since then, many local government work reports have made 5g network construction as the investment focus in 2020, and some provinces and cities have also made clear the construction goal of 5g base station.
Novel coronavirus pneumonia outbreak has been a significant improvement in China's top priority for new infrastructure.
On February 14, the 12th meeting of the Central Committee for comprehensive deepening reform pointed out that infrastructure is an important support for economic and social development. It is necessary to take overall optimization and collaborative integration as a guide, coordinate the development of stock and increment, traditional and new infrastructure, and build a modern infrastructure system that is intensive, efficient, affordable, intelligent, green, safe and reliable.
On February 21, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held a meeting, at which it was emphasized that more efforts should be made to support the research and development of reagents, drugs and vaccines, so as to accelerate the development of biomedicine, medical equipment, 5g network and industrial Internet.
On March 4, the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to re emphasize the acceleration of the construction of 5g network, data center and other new infrastructure.
03. Why invest in "new infrastructure"?
After the outbreak of novel coronavirus pneumonia, people have been reduced to go out, factories shut down and schools are closed. This has caused a great impact on all walks of life.
How to hedge the epidemic and economic downturn?
Ren Zeping, President of Evergrande Economic Research Institute, pointed out that in fact, the simplest and most effective way is to build infrastructure.
Historically, during the Asian financial crisis in 1998, China issued additional special treasury bonds to strengthen infrastructure construction, and during the global financial crisis in 2008, it launched a large-scale infrastructure investment plan.
Ren Zeping said in the article: Although there was a lot of controversy and criticism at that time, it now seems to be of great significance. It has greatly reduced transportation costs, improved the global competitiveness of made in China, and released the huge potential of China's high economic growth.
Che Ning, a researcher at the financial technology and Internet Security Research Center of Renmin University of China, said in an interview: "we have opened a gap with developing countries such as India, which is mainly reflected in the wave of investment in infrastructure like" iron public base "in 2008."
Compared with the traditional infrastructure, the new infrastructure needs to be supported by a certain industrial base. Che Ning believes that if our country wants to enter a higher level of development, it needs new infrastructure, which is reflected in the investment in frontier infrastructure.
Chen Duan, an associate professor at the Central University of Finance and economics, said that the emergence of the new concept of infrastructure has become an important starting point for counter cyclical regulation and the basis for promoting industrial upgrading, with a view to stabilizing growth. The significance of new infrastructure is not only to stimulate investment growth and strengthen counter cyclical regulation to hedge economic downturn, but also to rely on new digital economic infrastructure, which also brings the following values:
1. It can be implemented in various industry scenarios, enabling transformation and upgrading of traditional industries;
2. Drive the innovation of product form, industrial form and business model in application level, and provide assistance for the transformation of China's economy to innovation driven;
3. Stimulating new consumption with digital information technology as the carrier under the new scenario can not only expand domestic demand and reduce our dependence on the external environment under the current situation, but also use online digital consumption to form the compensatory satisfaction of offline physical consumption, so that our economy can change the growth mode, and move from the past with high energy consumption and high pollution to the future with green, low carbon and health as the foundation as soon as possible.
Xiao Xu, an assistant researcher at the Institute of economics, School of Social Sciences, Tsinghua University, believes that China's economy has changed from high-speed growth to high-quality development. In this process, we need to deeply mine data and information, and give full play to the advantages of digital technology in realizing innovation driven development, which must be based on the basic premise of building a perfect emerging infrastructure.
04. Application field of "new infrastructure" and related industrial chain
According to the seven fields of "new infrastructure" sealed by the official media, let's analyze their application fields and relevant industrial chains one by one.
5G 作为移动通信领域的重大变革点，是当前 “新基建” 的领衔领域，此前 5G 也已经被高层定调为“经济发展的新动能”。不管是从未来承接的产业规模，还是对新兴产业所起的技术作用来看，5G 都是最值得期待的。
实际上，我国重点发展的各大新兴产业，如工业互联网、车联网、企业上云、人工智能、远程医疗等，均需要以 5G 作为产业支撑；而 5G 本身的上下游产业链也非常广泛，甚至直接延伸到了消费领域。
特高压，指的是 ±800 千伏及以上的直流电和 1000 千伏及以上交流电的电压等级，它能大大提升我国电网的输送能力。我国是世界上唯一一个将特高压输电项目投入商业运营的国家，早在 1986 年就开始特高压建设。我国特高压建设潜力依然庞大，截至 2019 年 1 月，国家已经规划的各类特高压项目大概在 50-60条之间。
High speed rail is the business card of China's technology facing the world, and also the main artery of China's transportation. At the same time, in the process of urbanization, rail transit is a key link. At present, many major high-speed rail projects are under construction; at the same time, many cities are officially pushing forward the construction of urban rail transit, even though the rail transit is relatively developed in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, there is still a very big gap.
In terms of industrial direction, the industrial chain of intercity high-speed railway and intercity rail transit is also very long. From raw materials, machinery to electrical equipment to public utilities and transportation services, it will play a fundamental role in promoting the whole social development and the digitalization and intelligence of transportation.
The charging pile can be said to be the "gas station" of new energy vehicles. As of October 2018, the total number of charging piles in China is only 686000; as of October 2019, the total number of public charging piles and private charging piles in China is 1144000, with a year-on-year growth of 66.7% - although the growth seems to be very rapid, the gap of charging piles is still large.
According to the guidelines for the development of electric vehicle charging infrastructure (2015-2020) jointly issued by the four ministries and commissions of the state, by 2020, more than 12000 new centralized charging stations and 4.8 million decentralized charging piles will be added to meet the charging demand of 5 million electric vehicles in the country. Obviously, there is still a lot of room for growth in the whole field.
Big data center can be said to be Noah's Ark in the era of massive information. The future development of emerging industries will depend heavily on data resources. Therefore, from national government affairs to major industries, the establishment of data center will help to promote industry transformation and realize enterprise cloud access.
In today's technology wave, Internet data center is the most important trend. According to the survey data of synergy research, the world's top cloud computing service providers want to succeed in the market competition, each company's spending on infrastructure should reach at least $1 billion per quarter. The global data volume doubles every 18 months, and the data center construction will not keep up with the pace of big data explosion.
In addition, in addition to cloud computing, 5g, industrial Internet, artificial intelligence and other emerging fields are also jointly and significantly boosting the demand of human society for data centers.
The importance of artificial intelligence is self-evident.
On a large scale, artificial intelligence is a strategic technology leading a new round of scientific and technological revolution, industrial change and social change, which is having a significant and far-reaching impact on economic development, social progress, international political and economic pattern, etc. - in fact, at the highest decision-making level of the country, artificial intelligence has been focused on.
From the perspective of industrial development, artificial intelligence, as the core driving force of a new round of industrial transformation, is releasing the huge energy accumulated from previous scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation, continuously exploring the new generation of artificial intelligence application scenarios, reconstructing various links of economic activities such as production, distribution, exchange and consumption, and spawning new technologies, new products and new industries.
It is worth mentioning that, in the national planning, by 2020, the overall technology and application of artificial intelligence in China will be in step with the world's advanced level, and the artificial intelligence industry will become a new important economic growth point, which shows the importance of this year for the development of artificial intelligence.
Industrial Internet is the foundation of the development of intelligent manufacturing, which can provide common infrastructure and capabilities; China has taken industrial Internet as an important infrastructure to provide support for industrial intelligence. In 2012, "industrial Internet" was proposed. At the end of 2017, the state issued the top-level plan for industrial Internet. In 2019, "industrial Internet" was written into the government work report, and the industrial Internet gradually entered the substantive stage of implementation.
It is worth mentioning that on February 25, 2020, the Ministry of industry and information technology announced the 2019 industrial Internet pilot demonstration project, which consists of 81 projects at the three levels of network, platform and security. In general, 5g, platform and security will be the three most important directions for the industrial Internet industry in the future.
05. What opportunities do the seven "new infrastructure" contain?
According to the statistics of 21st century economic report, as of March 1, 13 provinces and cities including Beijing, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Fujian, Henan, Chongqing, etc. released the list of investment plans for 2020 key projects, including 10326 projects, of which 8 provinces published the total planned investment, totaling 33.83 Among them, infrastructure investment is an important part of local investment plans, and the investment amount of infrastructure plans in some regions even accounts for more than half of the total investment. A considerable part of these infrastructure investment is "new infrastructure".
Yu Haining, an analyst at Changjiang Securities, believes that there is uncertainty in all links of the global industrial chain due to the spread of overseas epidemic. Under the background of stable economic growth, as the infrastructure for the development of cloud computing, artificial intelligence, Internet of things and other strategic emerging industries, communication network is in line with the direction of economic transformation and is expected to become the main driver of "new infrastructure", accelerate the construction and development, and the industry continues to show the "counter cyclical" attribute.
Hua Changchun, the global chief economist of Guotai Junan Research Institute, thinks that the development space of "new infrastructure" is huge, but it is not enough to support the steady growth; because the proportion of "new infrastructure" projects in more than 17 trillion PPP project pool is very small, less than 100 billion yuan, only 0.5%, therefore, in fact, the government will use "old infrastructure" such as major projects related to the national economy and people's livelihood "New infrastructure" is the main driving force for the recovery, that is, "old infrastructure recovery and new infrastructure strengthening".
What is the development status and Prospect of the seven "new infrastructure"? What are the opportunities? Come and have a look!
5g: the base station construction volume is expected to exceed 550000 this year
Dongfang Securities said that the domestic 5g construction progress is expected to exceed market expectations. At present, the market is worried that the epidemic will affect the bidding at the beginning of 5g year and the supply cycle of the supply chain will be extended, which will have a great impact on the construction progress of 5g in the whole year. However, under the top-level coordinated deployment of the current communication industry, China's 5g industrial chain is rapidly returning to production, and the synergy between supply chains is strengthened.
From the perspective of operators, China Unicom is implementing 5g Network Co Construction and sharing, and resolutely shouldering the political responsibility of central enterprises. On February 21, China Unicom held a video conference to promote the investment and construction work during the national epidemic, clearly requiring all provincial companies to focus on and speed up the 5g construction. In the first half of the year, China Unicom and China Telecom strive to complete the construction task of 47 cities and 100000 base stations. It is expected to cooperate with China Telecom to complete the construction of 250000 stations in the first three quarters, one quarter ahead of the original plan.
China Mobile said on February 29 that the goal of "building 300000 5g base stations" in 2020 will not change. This year, 5g networks will be built in cities above prefecture level nationwide.
At present, the three major operators plan to build 550000 base stations in the whole year, and it is expected that the construction progress in the whole year may exceed expectations.
UHV: or bring an incremental market of 150 billion yuan
Galaxy Securities said that according to the notice on accelerating the planning and construction of a number of key power transmission and transformation projects issued by the State Energy Administration in September 2018, a total of 12 UHV projects have been planned.
State Grid recently issued the notice of the company's key tasks in 2020, which requires the construction of Baihetan Jiangsu UHV DC, Huazhong UHV AC ring network and other projects to be started within this year, and approved 7 UHV projects in Nanyang Jingmen Changsha, Wuhan Nanchang, Baihetan Jiangsu, etc. within this year, with strength exceeding the expectation.
According to the investment estimate of 20 billion yuan for each UHV, 7 newly approved UHV lines in the year may bring about 150 billion yuan of market increment space.
Urban Rail Transit: it is expected that the mileage of opening to traffic will exceed 1000 kilometers in 2020
Bank of China International said that by the end of 2019, 40 cities across the country had opened urban rail lines, with a total mileage of 6730.27 kilometers.
Under the background of increasing downward pressure on China's macro-economy, urban rail infrastructure investment, as one of the sharp tools to stabilize the economy, is expected to continue to increase. Local government special bonds and PPP projects provide incremental sources of funds to further promote urban rail infrastructure investment and contribute to the continuous increase of traffic mileage.
According to the data of the Ministry of finance, in 2019, the state issued 2.15 trillion yuan of special local government bonds, and issued part of the quota in 2020 in advance. We expect that the annual issuance in 2020 is expected to exceed 3 trillion yuan, showing the trend of increasing the scale of issuance and accelerating the pace of issuance. It is expected that in 2020, the traffic mileage will exceed 1000 kilometers. With the increase of traffic mileage, urban rail industry chain equipment company is expected to continue to grow, including vehicle equipment and urban rail control system equipment.
Charging post: market space of 100 billion yuan
According to the data of China charging alliance, by the end of January 2020, China has built 531000 public charging piles and 712000 private charging piles, with a ratio of 3.5:1, which is far lower than the 1:1 planned in the guidelines for the development of electric vehicle charging infrastructure (2015-2020).
According to the plan of new energy vehicle industry development plan (2021-2035) (Draft for comments), by 2025, the sales volume of new energy vehicles will account for about 25% of the vehicle sales, and it is conservatively estimated that the sales volume of new energy vehicles will be about 7 million. It is estimated that the number of charging piles needed is about 18.8 million based on 20 million new energy vehicles and 1:1 vehicle pile ratio.
Due to the large price difference between AC pile and DC pile, assuming that the average price of charging pile is 15000 yuan / set, the corresponding market space of charging equipment is about 280 billion yuan. It is estimated that the charging and service market will be about 40 billion yuan based on the annual electricity consumption of 2000 kilowatts per vehicle.
Big data center: Southwest and northwest have great growth potential
Ping An Securities believes that the data center has benefited significantly from the outbreak of traffic, and the industry is booming.
The Internet has erupted again during the outbreak, which is a tiktok for the new high water, the first sound movie and the free education course. Behind all Internet applications, data center is required to provide relevant basic support.
It is expected that the number of domestic data center projects will increase rapidly in the future, especially some green, large or super large data centers. In terms of regional structure, due to the limited growth space restricted by policies, the investment demand for new construction and expansion of data centers in surrounding provinces and cities will increase significantly. In addition, the number of data centers in some areas with suitable environment, favorable electricity price and relatively abundant land resources, such as northwest, southwest, etc., will also have great growth potential.
According to the statistics of the Institute of information and communication, the number of racks of IDC (Internet Data Center) in China in 2018 is 2.034 million, which is expected to grow to 3.267 million by 2020, with a rapid growth.
Artificial intelligence: the growth rate of China's market scale is expected to far exceed the global average this year
According to new era securities, the application demand of artificial intelligence in technology and business scenarios has increased, and the industrial scale will continue to grow.
In July 2017, the State Council issued the development plan for the new generation of artificial intelligence, which established the three-step strategic goal for the development of artificial intelligence, and the development of artificial intelligence rose to the national strategic level.
In September 2019, the Ministry of science and Technology issued the guidelines for the construction of national new generation artificial intelligence innovation and development pilot area, which proposed to promote the construction of artificial intelligence infrastructure, and to build about 20 pilot areas by 2023.
Nowadays, China's artificial intelligence technology has been used in the fields of intelligent security, medical care, finance and education. According to the forecast of prospective industry research institute, the growth rate of artificial intelligence market scale in China will be 45% in 2020, far exceeding the growth rate of global market scale.
Industrial Internet: it is expected that "5g + industrial Internet" will be the focus of investment
Ping An Securities said that the industrial Internet consists of basic network, platform and security system, of which platform is the core.
At present, the domestic industrial Internet platform is in the leading enterprise demonstration stage, and the main enterprises involved include large-scale manufacturing enterprises, Internet companies and third-party IT solution enterprises.
It is worth noting that the Ministry of industry and information technology focuses on promoting the cross industry and cross field industrial Internet platform demonstration project. The project was selected in August 2019, and 10 enterprises were shortlisted, including Huawei fusionplant, Alibaba supet, Haier cosmoplat, orient Guoxin cloudiip, yonyou Jingzhi, tree root Internet root cloud, Aerospace cloud network dics, Inspur cloud in cloud, Foxconn beacon XCMG information Hanyun. Novel coronavirus pneumonia should be seen in the new Haier pneumonia, the Internet platform of Xugong Group and so on.
Ping An Securities pointed out that according to the plan of the Ministry of industry and information technology, the development of China's industrial Internet will be promoted in accordance with the "three-step" strategy. 2025 is the first planning period, focusing on the construction of industrial Internet infrastructure and platform. It is expected that "5g + industrial Internet" will be the focus and breakthrough of investment.
The list of industrial Internet pilot demonstration projects in 2019 released by the Ministry of industry and information technology on February 25 specifies 81 demonstration projects, among which there are as many as 10 "5g + industrial Internet" integrated innovation projects, covering large aircraft manufacturing, electrical manufacturing, port management, equipment processing and other fields.
(this paper is integrated and reproduced from "Nandu" according to the contents of national through train, Leifeng network, etc.)